A Shifting Ally? How US Election Outcomes Could Reshape Israeli-Palestinian Relations
The U.S. election stands to shape Israel-Palestine relations in significant ways, depending on which candidate wins. While Israel has historically viewed America as its strongest ally, the differing approaches of Trump and Harris could lead to very distinct outcomes. Trump’s policy decisions, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and supporting Israel’s claims to the Golan Heights, garnered considerable support from Israeli leaders and citizens alike. Harris, however, has shown more sensitivity to humanitarian concerns in the region, creating a possible shift in the longstanding alliance.
For Israel, Trump’s previous administration proved fruitful, including the brokering of normalization agreements with several Arab nations, which helped expand Israel’s regional alliances. Netanyahu once called Trump Israel’s “best friend in the White House,” and many Israelis still hope for Trump’s return to power. This alliance, however, has faced criticism, as Trump’s hardline stance on Palestinian statehood and his opposition to Gaza ceasefires have alienated some American allies and heightened Palestinian grievances.
Harris, by contrast, has leaned toward a more humanitarian-focused approach, evidenced by her call for a Gaza ceasefire and concern for civilian casualties. This perspective reflects a growing faction within the U.S. that is increasingly critical of Israeli military actions. For Harris, being sensitive to both Israeli security and Palestinian humanitarian issues could help reframe the U.S. as a more balanced mediator, although this may alienate Israeli leaders who are seeking a more straightforward pro-Israel stance.
For many Palestinians, the hope for a two-state solution has waned over the years, and faith in the U.S. as a fair mediator has diminished. The general sentiment among Palestinians is that while Democrats, like Harris, may take a softer stance than Republicans, this does not necessarily translate into real progress toward statehood. Barghouti, a Palestinian political figure, has noted that many Palestinians view the U.S. as complicit in their ongoing hardships, seeing American support as heavily skewed toward Israel.
Middle Eastern allies, such as Saudi Arabia, are also watching closely, hoping for U.S. support for regional stability that includes Palestinian rights. Some leaders in the region believe that Harris’s policies may bring more opportunities for diplomatic talks and less hostility, while Trump’s re-election could see a more aggressive stance toward Iran and a less compromising approach toward Israel. Saudi Arabia, for example, has been encouraging steps toward a Palestinian state, as it aims to solidify broader alliances with the U.S. and Israel.
Ultimately, the Middle East remains at a crossroads as the U.S. election nears. With Trump, Israel may secure an ally with unyielding support, but it risks further alienating Palestinians and complicating relations with American allies who seek stability. Harris, on the other hand, might strive for a balanced approach that could foster progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, yet potentially strain U.S.-Israel ties if her policies are seen as less supportive. The election’s outcome will likely determine the future dynamics of this complex region.
