Can Iran Avoid an All-Out War While Deterring Israel?

Jack daniel
3 min readSep 18, 2024

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The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel continues to raise questions about whether Tehran can maintain its deterrence without triggering a full-scale war. On August 14, two weeks after the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh — a move widely attributed to Israel — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei suggested that “non-tactical retreat leads to the wrath of God.” Many analysts interpreted this as a potential declaration of retaliation, while others saw it as an explanation for why Iran had not yet responded directly.

The Challenge of Retaliation

The assassination of Haniyeh exposed significant flaws in Iran’s intelligence network and security apparatus. It also highlighted the challenges Iran faces in responding to Israeli provocations. Should Iran retaliate, it risks igniting an all-out conflict. Should it refrain, it risks appearing weak in the eyes of both its allies and adversaries. The challenge for Iran is finding the right time and method of response — one that reestablishes deterrence without pushing the region into war.

Historically, Iran has sought to avoid large-scale wars since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. The trauma of that war, which resulted in nearly a million Iranian casualties and severe economic devastation, remains fresh in the minds of Iran’s leadership. This experience has shaped Iran’s current policy of avoiding direct military engagement with major powers, including Israel, at all costs. Khamenei’s statement could be seen as a justification for this restraint, suggesting that a measured response may be more effective in the long term.

A New Security Architecture

Over the past few decades, Iran has built a regional deterrent strategy primarily through the use of proxies, including groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These groups, many of which have direct ties to Iran, have allowed Tehran to extend its influence across the Middle East without directly involving its military. However, the growing military prowess of Israel, particularly its aggressive actions in Gaza and assassinations of regional leaders, has caused Iran to rethink its deterrent strategy.

Iran’s current strategy revolves around building new deterrents, such as advancing its nuclear program and enhancing its missile capabilities. These measures are seen as essential to maintaining Iran’s influence and deterring Israel from launching further attacks. A conventional war between Israel and Iran would be catastrophic for the region, and both nations are aware of the high stakes involved.

Strategic Patience and Red Lines

Iran has adopted a policy of “strategic patience,” wherein it focuses on capacity building while refraining from immediate retaliation. Iran’s military, intelligence, and nuclear developments have continued uninterrupted, even under heavy sanctions and external pressure. This patience is driven by the need to avoid a war that could threaten the regime’s survival.

Iran’s red lines are clear: any threat to its economic lifelines, such as oil facilities or its territorial integrity, would prompt a decisive response. However, these red lines are balanced by a desire to avoid confrontation with the U.S., which has pledged unwavering support for Israel. Tehran is, therefore, focusing on fortifying its defenses and ensuring that any response is proportional to the risks involved.

The Path Forward

As tensions between Iran and Israel simmer, Tehran faces a difficult path forward. While it is clear that Iran must restore its deterrence to avoid being perceived as weak, any retaliatory action carries the risk of sparking an all-out war. The leadership in Tehran is likely to continue relying on proxies and building its internal capacities, including its nuclear program, to strengthen its position. However, Israel, not Iran, holds the key to whether this delicate balance can be maintained.

With U.S. support, Israel has the means to dictate the terms of engagement, and Iran is left weighing its options. For now, Tehran is likely to remain in a posture of strategic patience, using its time to build up its deterrent capabilities while keeping an eye on the risks of regional escalation. Whether Iran can navigate this complex landscape without triggering a full-scale war remains one of the most critical questions in Middle Eastern geopolitics today.

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Jack daniel

Do not judge me before u know me, but just to inform u, you won’t like me